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03/11/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the boys of summer prepare for the upcoming MLB season, the ones north of the border are sure to get some extra attention.
Tracking some of Canada's top players for the MLB 2010 season:
HITTERS
JUSTIN MORNEAU, MINNESOTA TWINS
2009: .274 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R, .878 OPS
2010 Outlook: The 2006 AL MVP suffered a stress fracture in his back late in the '09 season that forced the first baseman to miss the team's final 21 games. Despite playing in his fewest games since 2004, the three-time All-Star topped 30-100 for the third time in four years. With a healthy Twins lineup, featuring newly-acquired Orlando Hudson and MLB batting champ Joe Mauer, Morneau is poised for another MVP-type season.
Stat fact: Morneau has the fourth-highest RBI total in baseball since 2006.
JASON BAY, NEW YORK METS
2009: .267 AVG, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 R, .921 OPS
2010 Outlook: Bay returns to the NL after posting career-highs in HR and RBI in his first full season as a member of the Boston Red Sox. The three-time All- Star signed an $80 million contract to take his act to the Big Apple, where the outfielder should add solid production and durability to a talented yet injury-plagued ballclub. Although Bay's home run total is likely to take a hit in the spacious Citi Field, his peripheral numbers should stay similar to years' past given the potential of the Mets lineup.
Stat fact: Bay's 2009 RBI and HR totals ranked second and third respectively in the AL.
JOEY VOTTO, CINCINNATI REDS
2009: .322 AVG, 25 HR, 84 RBI, .414 OBP, .567 SLG, .981 OPS
2010 Outlook: An inner-ear infection and subsequent battle with depression poured cold water on the banner year the Reds first baseman was putting together. The 26-year-old was hitting .370 through early May before the infection gave way to headaches and dizziness. Votto ended up missing 31 games but still managed to lead the Reds in several offensive categories and finished among the NL top five in batting, slugging and on-base percentage. Healthy and looking to put his past behind him, Votto should continue to solidify himself among the elite hitters in the game.
Stat fact: Votto hit .300 or higher in six consecutive months from August '08 to July '09, including hitting .374 last September.
PITCHERS
ERIK BEDARD, SEATTLE MARINERS
2009: 5-3, 2.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 90 SO, 83 IP
2010 Outlook: The six-foot-one, 200-pound southpaw is coming off shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the first couple months of the season. However, the Mariners signed the injury-prone 31-year-old to a low-risk, high-reward one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives, given his age and high strikeout-to-walk ratio when healthy. If he can stay on the mound, Bedard could provide exceptional depth in the middle of a rotation headlined by Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee.
Stat fact: Erik Bedard's 10.93 strikeouts per nine innings in 2007 stands as the highest K/9 ratio in the MLB since Oliver Perez in 2004.
RYAN DEMPSTER, CHICAGO CUBS
2009: 11-9, 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 172 SO, 200 IP
2010 Outlook: The starter-turned-closer-back-to-starter had another solid season in '09, pitching 200 innings for the second-straight year, although he failed to duplicate an impressive '08 campaign (17-6, 2.96 ERA). Regardless, the 32-year-old right hander should continue to turn out quality starts as the No. 3 pitcher for the Cubs.
Stat fact: Since the beginning of 2008, Dempster ranks in the NL top 10 in wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts.
RICH HARDEN, TEXAS RANGERS
2009: 9-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 SO, 141 IP
2010 Outlook: Similar to Bedard, the 28-year-old right-hander has been somewhat of an enigma, among the most talented arms in the game when he's not on the disabled list. After spending a little more than a year in Chicago, the Victoria, B.C.-native signed with the Rangers in the hopes of returning to his dominant form. Although Harden gave up a career-high 23 home runs in '09, his 26 starts were the most he's made in a season since 2004 with Oakland.
Stat fact: Injuries have prevented Harden from qualifying for most categories, but his 9.35 K/9 since 2003 would rank him seventh in all of baseball.
LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK
LHP JEFF FRANCIS, COLORADO ROCKIES
The six-foot-five lanky southpaw is looking to put the past two seasons behind him.
After helping guide the Rockies to the World Series with a 17-9 record over 215 innings in '07, Francis went 4-10 with an ERA over five in '08 and missed all of 2009 following shoulder surgery.
A healthy Francis will look to regain the old form that saw him go 44-32 over three seasons (2005-2007).
C RUSSELL MARTIN, LOS ANGELES DODGERS
By all accounts, Martin's 2009 season was a disappointment. Unable to build on three productive years in Dodger blue, the 27-year-old put up career-lows across the board (.250 AVG, 7 HR, 53 RBI).
The two-time All-Star arrived in 2010 training camp claiming to have put on 25 pounds of muscle over the offseason, determined to reclaim his status as one of the top young catchers in the game.
However, Martin pulled his groin early in camp and will miss four-to-six weeks, including the beginning of the regular season. When healthy, Martin is a multi- tool catcher, providing power, speed and durability at a position where a combination of those skills is rare.
AROUND THE BASES
3B Mark Teahen, CWS: Former utility man for the Royals, Teahen is penciled in as the starting third baseman for the White Sox this coming season. The 28- year-old had 12 HR, 50 RBI, and 34 2B in 144 games for Kansas City last year.
RF Matt Stairs, SD: At 42, Stairs will assume the role as the power-hitting pinch-hitter off San Diego's bench. After considering retirement, Stairs reportedly checked into training camp 32 pounds lighter than he was at the end of the '09 season. The left-handed slugger ranks second all-time behind Larry Walker for home runs by a Canadian MLB player with 259.
TOP PROSPECTS
Baseball America recently named three Canadians in their annual Top 100 Prospects list, led by Michael Saunders (ranked 30th) of the Seattle Mariners. The 23-year-old outfielder hit .221 in 122 AB last year with the Mariners and could find his way back up to the big club should injuries strike.
Brett Lawrie (59th) became the earliest Canadian position player ever selected in the MLB draft when the Milwaukee Brewers took him 16th overall in 2008. The 20-year-old second baseman hit .274 with 13 HR and 65 RBI in 118 games split between the Brewers' Class-A and Double-A affiliates. Lawrie is expected to spend the '10 season in the minor leagues.
Phillippe Aumont (93rd) was a key component of the three-way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. The 21-year-old six-foot-seven right hander will start the season in Double-A for the Philadelphia Phillies, and has an outside chance at making a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
<< Chiefs sign Urban
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Chiefs have signed wide
receiver Jerheme Urban.
Urban spent the past three seasons with Arizona after playing his first three
years in the NFL with Seattle. He has 87 career recepti
<< Reyes to rest after additional tests on thyroid
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets said shortstop Jose Reyes
will not participate in any baseball activities until his thyroid levels
return to normal.
Reyes underwent additional blood tests this week after being diag
<< Tank Johnson re-signs with Cincinnati
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals have re-signed
defensive tackle Tank Johnson.
Johnson originally signed with Cincinnati last offseason and recorded two
sacks and 29 tackles in 14 games last season.
"Si
<< Report: Woods working with Fleischer on return
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods may be returning to the PGA Tour in
two weeks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, according to a report
in the New York Post.
In a story Thursday, the Post credits "two sources in the gol
Patriots re-sign RB Faulk >>
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots re-signed running back
Kevin Faulk on Thursday. Details of the contract were not disclosed.
The all-purpose back, who has been with the Patriots since being selected in
the second r
Lookin at Lucky highlights Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn >>
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion colt Lookin at Lucky tops a field
of seven three-year-olds in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
The 2009 champion two-year-old will be making his first start of the year in
the 1 1
Puerto Rico Open washed out by heavy rain >>
Rio Grande, Puerto Rico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first round of the Puerto Rico
Open was washed out Thursday by another round of heavy rain that left the
Trump International course unplayable.
Only 18 players in a full PGA Tour field tee
Real's Pellegrini given vote of confidence >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid Technical Director Jorge Valdano
has handed the dreaded vote of confidence to coach Manuel Pellegrini after the
Spanish giants were knocked out of the Champions League by Lyon on Wednesday.
Real
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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