Gaels and Toreros tangle in WCC affair

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2012 - Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels put an 11- game win streak on the line this evening, as they welcome the San Diego Toreros to Moraga for a West Coast Conference matchup at McKeon Pavilion.

Randy Bennett's Gaels are clicking on all cylinders right now, at 21-2 overall and a perfect 10-0 in conference play. It is the best overall start for SMC in school history. Saint Mary's has not suffered a loss since December 22nd against Big 12 power Baylor (72-59). Most recently, the Gales remained unbeaten in league play with an 80-66 victory at BYU this past weekend.

Bill Grier's Toreros have struggled this season and enter this contest five games under .500 overall (8-13) and three games below the mark in-conference (3-6). San Diego is coming off an 84-70 loss at San Francisco and has lost two of its last three games overall.

The Gaels are seeking the regular-season sweep after posting a 78-72 victory at San Diego back on January 5th. With the win, Saint Mary's sports a narrow 37-35 lead in the all-time series.

With a -4.9 scoring margin, it is no wonder the Toreros have found wins hard to come by. The team lacks any real scoring depth, netting a meager 66.4 ppg, despite shooting a decent .440 from the floor. Another area of concern for the team is the lack of production on the boards. USD is being outrebounded by nearly five rebounds per game. Johnny Dee is the only player on the team currently averaging double figures at 14.5 ppg. Chris Manresa and Darian Norris are just below the mark with 9.4 and 9.1 ppg, respectively. The Toreros finally put together a strong offensive showing last time out, shooting a cool .509 from the floor against San Francisco. Unfortunately, it didn't carry over the defensive end, as the Dons racked up 84 points in a 14-point romp. Ken Rancifer led the Toreros with 17 points. Dee finished with 13, while Dennis Kramer and Manresa added nine points apiece.

The Gaels are getting it done in just about every facet of the game, leading the WCC in field-goal percentage (.483) and scoring defense (60.3 ppg). The team has a number of invaluable contributors, headlined by Matthew Dellavedova and Rob Jones. Dellavedova leads the team in scoring (15.4 ppg) and assists (6-4 apg) with latter tops in the conference. Jones has the ability to score from anywhere on the floor, but enjoys the play down low, averaging 14.3 points and a WCC-best 10.8 rebounds per game. Stephen Holt (10.7 ppg) is a viable third scoring option and leads the WCC in steals. The Gaels displayed their offensive firepower in the road win at BYU this past weekend, as four players finished in double figures. Brad Waldow hit 8-of-10 from the floor to finish with a game-high 19 points. Clint Steindl came off the bench with 16 points. Jones just missed a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Dellavedova tallied 10 points, seven boards and four assists.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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